If you picked up this book with one eyebrow raised, you are not the wrong reader. You are exactly the reader this section is for.
Most serious people do not come to quantum risk through a calm chain of evidence. They come to it through a headline, a vendor deck, a passing mention in a board packet, or a meeting where someone says, “We should probably watch this.” That is a bad way to develop judgment. It creates either panic or dismissal. Neither one helps you.
So let me level with you directly.
No honest person can tell you the date on which a cryptographically relevant quantum computer will arrive. No honest person can promise which vendor roadmaps will mature on schedule. No honest person can tell you that every part of the standards and implementation landscape will feel clean and settled next quarter. If someone is selling certainty here, be careful.
But uncertainty about the date is not the same thing as uncertainty about the work.
If your organization holds data that must remain confidential for seven to ten years, and your migration will take three to seven years once it starts, and the work has not started—then the planning window is already open. That is not a prediction about quantum computing. It is arithmetic about lead time.
Three things keep me up at night. First, the number of organizations that hold long-horizon data but have never classified it by confidentiality lifetime. Second, the number of trust paths—certificates, keys, machine identities—that no one has mapped or owns. Third, the number of supplier relationships where quantum readiness has never been raised, let alone required.
This book is not here to scare you. It is here to give you a decision-grade view of what is moving, what matters, and what you can do in the next twelve months that will not be wasted regardless of when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer arrives.
Delay is a decision. This book is for people who prefer to make that decision with evidence.
From: Front Matter